How is Precipitation Changing?

Pronounced long-term trends from 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation amount in some places: significantly wetter in eastern North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia, but drier in the Sahel, southern Africa, the Mediterranean and southern Asia. More precipitation now falls as rain rather than snow in northern regions. Widespread increases in heavy precipitation events have been observed even in places where total amounts have decreased. These changes are associated with increased water vapor in the atmosphere arising from the warming of the world's oceans, especially at lower latitudes.

Precipitation is the general term for rainfall, snowfall, and other forms of frozen or liquid water falling from clouds. Precipitation is intermittent, and the character of the precipitation when it occurs depends greatly on temperature and the weather situations. Precipitation forms as water vapor condenses, usually in rising air that expands and hence cools. The upward motion comes from air rising over mountains, warm air riding over cooler air (warm front), colder air pushing under warmer air (cold front), convection from local heating of the surface, and other weather and cloud systems. Hence, changes in any of these aspects alter precipitation. As precipitation maps tend to be spotty, overall trends in precipitation are indicated by the Palmer Drought Severity Index, which is a measure of soil moisture using precipitation and crude estimates of changes in evaporation.

A consequence of increased heating from the human-induced enhanced greenhouse effect is increased evaporation, provided that adequate surface moisture is available (as it always is over the oceans and other wet surfaces). Hence, surface moisture effectively acts as an 'air conditioner', as heat used for evaporation acts to moisten the air rather than warm it. An observed consequence of this is that summers often tend to be either warm and dry or cool and wet. In the areas of eastern North and South America where it has become wetter, temperatures have therefore increased less than elsewhere. Over northern continents in winter, however, more precipitation is associated with higher temperatures, as the water holding capacity of the atmosphere increases in warmer conditions. However, in these regions, where precipitation has generally increased somewhat, increases in temperatures have increased drying, making the precipitation changes less evident.

Warming accelerates land surface drying and increases the potential incidence and severity of droughts, which has been observed in many places worldwide. However, a well-established physical law (the Clausius-Clapeyron relation) determines that the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere increases by about 7% for every 1 Celsius rise in temperatures.

Over the 20th century, based on changes in sea surface temperatures, it is estimated that atmospheric water vapor increased by about 5% in the atmosphere over the oceans. Because precipitation comes mainly from weather systems that feed on the water vapor stored in the atmosphere, this has generally increased precipitation intensify and the risk of heavy rain and snow events. Basic theory, climate model simulations and empirical evidence all confirm that warmer climates, owing to increased water vapor, lead to more intense precipitation events even when the total annual precipitation is reduced slightly, and with prospects for even stronger events when the overall precipitation amounts increase. The warmer climate therefore increases risks of both drought - where it is not raining - and floods - where it is - but at different times and/or places. For instance, the summer of 2002 in Europe brought widespread floods but was followed a year later in 2003 by record-breaking heat waves and drought.

In areas where aerosol pollution masks the ground from direct sunlight, decreases in evaporation reduce the overall moisture supply to the atmosphere. Hence, even as the potential for heavier precipitation results from increased water vapor amounts, the duration and frequency of events may be curtailed, as it takes longer to recharge the atmosphere with water vapor.

Local and regional changes in the character of precipitation also depend a great deal on atmospheric circulation patterns determined by El Nino, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; a measure of westerly wind strength over the North Atlantic in winter) and other patterns of variability. Some of these observed circulation changes are associated with climate change. An associated shift in the storm track makes some regions wetter and some - often nearby - drier, making for complex patterns of change.

The prolonged drought in the Sahel, which was pronounced from the later 1960s to the late 1980s, continues although it is not quite as intense as it was; it has been linked, through changes in atmospheric circulation, to changes in tropical sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Basins. Drought has become widespread throughout much of Africa and more common in the tropics and subtropics.

As temperatures rise, the likelihood of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow increases, especially in autumn and spring at the beginning and end of the snow season, and in areas where temperatures are near freezing. Such changes are observed in many places, especially over land in middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, leading to increased rains but reduced snowpacks, and consequently diminished water resources in summer, when they are most needed. The long-term record emphasizes that patterns of precipitation vary somewhat from year to year, and even prolonged multi-year droughts are usually punctuated by a year of heavy rains; for instance as El Nino influences are felt.