Kowan O'Keefe: Things are Heating Up in the Arctic

A number of adverse effects of climate change will have an impact on the lives of each and every one of us. Some of these adverse effects of climate change will also have significant geopolitical consequences, and one place where this is going to be particularly evident is in the Arctic. 

Now, when most of us think about climate change in the Arctic, the image that often comes to mind is that of a polar bear balancing on a floating piece of ice. The fact that the polar bear population in the arctic is in danger is concerning, and should not be ignored. 

Photo from www.ens-newswire.com

However, in the Arctic there are numerous deposits of natural resources that are becoming more accessible every year as a result of climate change. These rich deposits include an estimated 25-30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 15-20% of the world’s undiscovered crude oil reserves. Large deposits of diamonds, rare earths, and other minerals such as palladium, platinum, and zinc are believed to be in the Arctic as well. All eight of the permanent members of the Arctic Council, including the United States, Canada, Russia, and the Scandinavian countries have shown considerable interest in these untapped resources. It is possible that the race to this wealth of natural resources in the Arctic could lead to tension and strained relations in the region. 

We have seen this already. In 2007, the Russians planted their flag on the sea floor at the North Pole. Within months, other countries in the region responded by increasing naval patrols in the Arctic and staking out sovereignty claims. It appeared that tensions were really heating up in the region. Since then though, Arctic countries have settled long-standing territorial disputes and other disagreements in a peaceful and orderly manner. So, for now anyway, it looks as if tensions between the nations in the Arctic have calmed down significantly.

Another possible point of contention that may prove to be of consequence in the Arctic is that of the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route. With the ice cap in the arctic shrinking, it is soon going to be possible to sail ships through the Northwest Passage, which winds through the Canadian Islands in the Arctic Ocean. As a result of this, will the Canadian government be able to impose their laws on ships sailing through the Northwest Passage? Also, the Northern Sea Route, which hugs the Russian coastline in the Arctic, saw four commercial ships sail through its waters for the first time in 2010. The Russian government has even set up an office in Moscow thats job is to monitor marine weather and issue shipping permits for the Northern Sea Route. 

How will the accessibility of these sea routes affect global navigation and shipping patterns? And in particular, how will all of this be regulated? The regulation of this undoubtedly has the potential to strain relations in the region. The Arctic is warming and the region is changing at an alarming rate. In the near future, will the warming of the Arctic cause political tensions in the region to heat up as well? 

Image from www.nasa.gov