Lucas Frye: Climate Change and the 2018 Senate Elections

As the last ballots are counted and the 2018 midterm elections come to an end, it is important to reflect on the many issues which candidates used to differentiate themselves and their visions of good government. Climate change and environmental policy more broadly form a policy question over which there is increasing polarization of opinion, and as such, those running for office have used such topics to propel themselves into the spotlight as well as to disparage their opponent’s views. Senate hopefuls in particular will need to address the scientific concerns of entire states, which can have highly variable weather patterns and sources of economic activity, presenting the need for a broader and more comprehensive approach to climate policy. To explore the role of climate change on this year’s senate race, let’s look at some of the states with the most competitive races and the expected climate impacts in those regions.

West Virginia
Climate risks:

• Increased temperatures will increase the duration, frequency, and intensity of heat waves, posing a direct threat to human health.
• Sea-level rise will contribute to river flooding along tributaries of the Ohio River and the Chesapeake Bay, posing an economic and health threat to communities in adjacent floodplains.
• Increased intensity of precipitation events and hurricane vulnerability poses a threat to infrastructure in the event of exceeded stormwater management capacity.
• Temperature increases, flooding, and crop timing changes may compromise agricultural productivity.

​Senator-elect: Joe Manchin III (D)

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Manchin’s positions:

• Supports addressing energy needs by using all available resources, including fossil fuels, renewable energy, and nuclear power
• Focuses on energy independence more than sustainable environmental practices
• Supports maintaining WV’s status as the second-largest producer of coal in the U.S

 
Florida
Climate risks:

• Sea level rise and storm surges threaten to inundate ports at Miami, Jacksonville, and Port Everglades, three of the largest ports in the American Southeast.
• Increasing temperatures will produce more and higher-intensity extreme heat events, larger concentrations of airborne pollutants and allergens, and reduce crop and livestock productivity.
• Algae blooms, water pollution, and saltwater intrusions will threaten the availability of domestic water supplies while water demand increases due to urban development and the augmented necessity of irrigated agriculture.
• Higher hurricane vulnerability will threaten infrastructure and human life on an increasingly frequent basis.

​Senator-elect: Rick Scott (R) or Bill Nelson (D)*

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Scott’s positions:

• Repealed Florida’s greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program
• Signed AFP’s No Climate Tax Pledge
• Supports exploitation of existing energy reserves
• Focuses on expanding tourism
• Enacted budget cuts for Florida Department of Environmental Protection

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Nelson’s positions:

• Lists climate change as an issue of primary importance on Senate campaign website
• Supports infrastructure improvements for coastline resiliency
• Pushed for increased funding for climate science research
• Voted for legislation to ban oil and gas activities off of Florida’s Gulf Coast

​Missouri
Climate risks:

• Increased extreme weather events pose threats to the agricultural industry by damaging crops and interfering with normal crop growth cycle timing.
• Damage to forest ecosystems will result in lower carbon dioxide absorption, which will reinforce a positive feedback loop for the greenhouse effect.
• As heat wave intensity and frequency increase, so will the public health risks, especially for the increasingly urban population of Missouri that will suffer more due to heat island effects, increased humidity, and degraded air and water quality.
• Increased rainfall and flooding will cause erosion along rivers and contribute to untreated sewage discharge as sewage-overflow systems become overwhelmed.

Senator-elect: Josh Hawley (R)

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Hawley’s positions:

• Fought against Waters of the United States Rule and the Clean Power Plan, claiming that they hurt the economy by raising energy prices
• Sought to dismantle energy regulations as Missouri’s Attorney General

Texas
Climate risks:

• Alterations in crop growth cycle timing, water loss due to increased temperature and irrigation demand, and improved ability of pests to survive the winter pose great economic threats to agricultural productivity.
• Energy development activities fragment landscapes, hindering adaptation of native species and degrading local ecosystems.
• Weather hazards like flood, drought, heat waves, and storms, including tornadoes, hurricanes, and winter storms are expected to worsen in frequency and intensity.

​Senator-elect: Ted Cruz (R)

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Cruz’s positions:

• Introduced the American Energy Renaissance Act, which would encourage energy exploration, expand liquid natural gas exports, and end the ban on crude oil exports
• Sponsored the Affordable Reliable Energy Now Act, which would reverse Clean Power Plan regulations
• Voted to repeal the Renewable Fuel Standard, which required a minimum volume of renewable fuels to be included within transportation fuel mixtures

Nevada
Climate risks:

• Decreased snowpack and streamflow may reduce the surface water supply and threaten tourism to the state.
• Reduced crop yields may result due to higher temperature, accelerated ripening of crops, and increased competition for water.
• Warming and higher incidence of drought are likely to raise the risk of wildfires, potentially displacing human populations and damaging infrastructure.
• More prevalent extreme heat events will especially hurt the largely urban population of Nevada and may disrupt the distribution of electricity and water within cities.

​Senator-elect: Jacky Rosen (D)

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Rosen’s positions:

• Opposes efforts to dismantle Clean Power Plan
• Supports reducing carbon, air, and water pollution
• Promotes creating jobs in clean energy industries
• 97% Lifetime Score from the League of Conservation Voters

​The intersection of climate science and politics forms an illustrative relationship, given the role of elected officials in supporting the interests of their constituencies as well as the highly region-specific consequences global change will have on the various ecosystems of the United States. Climate change will affect all Americans, but the localized impacts on different communities form the basis upon which the members of those groups will assess the relative benefits and risk of government action and corporate regulation. When these new and returning Senators enter the 116th United States Congress next year, we will have the chance to witness how exactly they will address (or ignore) the impending threats climate change represents to each of their communities.
 
*As of the time of this writing, a recount is likely to be triggered in Florida’s Senate election.
 
Region-specific climate risks were adapted from information in the 2014 National Climate Assessment (U.S. Global Change Research Program).